McCain Aint Stupid

Before beginning to explain the title I should clarify that and say that either he or whoever is whispering in his ear aint stupid.

The long wind of the presidential race had a predictable path. George Bush was (and is) so out of favour with the general population that whichever Democrat wins the primary is a sure bet for the big job.

Along the way something of importance did tempt fate to change its course: the surge worked. Now some critics, including Obama, say that there were other important factors that contributed the improved conditions in Iraq - in particular the Awakening Council of Sunni muslim groups that turned against the violent insurgent movement. However even on this point it should be noted that the increased pressure being applied by the American military is arguably a significant reason for the forming of the Awakening Council.

A little side note here about Barack Obama’s world tour. After emerging from meetings with the leadership in Iraq, the president to-be made a great raucous about him and the big chiefs in Iraq converging on a pull-out timetable. However he probably didn’t make such a drama about the fact that he never discussed the issue with the big cheeses. Also, at any point during the (so far) years long Iraq war his position has been to pull-out ‘soon’. Hence when with the drastically improved situation leading the Iraq government to feel strong enough to consider this as an option, big boy Barack says him and the big cheeses are on the same wavelength. However while they may be on the same wavelength, they are on different planets. Barack Obama’s policy was to winning or losing pull-out. This is a far cry from pulling out after winning.

So back to the main theme. Though George Bush had a significant win in Iraq – that probably surprised him as much as all the critics – he has had a significant loss on the home front. The economy is being battered by more than the occasional hurricane. All the talk is about propping up the high-rollers on Wall Street so as not to have the problem spread to Main Street. However to the many people doing it rough, including all those that couldn’t make their mortgage repayments and hence started the Wall Street crisis, things on Main Street are already pretty much trashed.

All that the Democrats had to do was ride the wave of public sentiment against the Republican establishment. Part of that wave was for Barack Obama to appoint Hilary Clinton as his running mate. Not doing this move allowed McCain to pull a swifty. By appointing any women that is at least able to give a better public speech then him he rides the wave of disenchantment that Obama created. This was Obama’s first wrong move, and this was McCain’s first big move.

When George Bush announces a rescue package to rescue the world-wide Wall Street high-rollers from their collective drunken stupor, Obama throws his support behind the move. Admittedly in some way the Congress will likely pass some form of the bill, with Republicans and Democrats both voting either way. However McCain has taken the opposing position. So we have the Republican incumbent and Democrat nominee versus the Republican nominee. Even if Congress passes the bill, it will be in largely unpopular. Barack and George become friends and McCain wins out.

It is argued that McCain will likely switch his position at some stage. Even if he does, he still has created a division that he stands to gain much on.

So against all odds I would argue that someone in the McCain camp is pretty smart on strategy – that is not necessarily referring to McCain – and someone in the Obama camp should take some surfing lessons.